Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 84.6%
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85
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado24 ene 26, 19:04 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
This market resolves YES if it is possible to fully interpret a GPT-2 level capability model, or create an inherently interpretable GPT-2 level capability model.
- Anywhere below where I say "GPT-2" I mean it as shorthand for the above, rather than literally the specific GPT-2 model.
- There is no rigorous definition of "fully interpret", so it will be based on my opinion.
- But here are some examples of things we'd be able to do if we had full interpretability:
- Being able to come up with a detailed, fully granular explanation (e.g not about entire attention heads or "super nodes", but individual channels or features) that can be validated by some strong form of ablation (probably much stronger than zero/mean ablation).
- Being able to make very nontrivial and unobvious predictions about the model's behavior in unobserved situations.