Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 74.3%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 minutos
9 ago 26, 18:54 UTC1 ene 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill all Millennium prize problems be solved (or proved unsolvable) by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill at least 4 of the 7 Millennium Problems be solved by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if two distinct Millennium Prize Problems have solving dates no more than 365 days apart, and both solving dates occur before the market close.
- A problem's solving date is the earliest date on which a complete and correct solution was publicly available online.
- Correctness may be established retrospectively; subsequent recognition, peer review, or verification does not change the solving date.
- More clarifications:
- A claimed solution containing a substantive mathematical gap does not count.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 110,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will two Millennium Prize problems be solved in the same year??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will two Millennium Prize problems be solved in the same year??
- Está previsto que Will two Millennium Prize problems be solved in the same year? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will two Millennium Prize problems be solved in the same year??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria