Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.5%
Pronosticadores
31
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 minutos
20 sept 26, 19:51 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
All Millennium Prize Problems solved before EOY?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a verified AI-assisted solution to one of the Millennium Prize problems by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketHow many of the 7 Millennium Prize Problems will be solved by EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhen will all Millennium Prize Problems be solved?
KalshiWill OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution?
KalshiReglas
Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial
- Two are solved already, so this market is really asking if 3 more will be solved before December 31
- Resolves YES if a solution was generated on December 31 but isn't announced until January, I may wait to resolve NO for a week or two in January for that reason.
- If the day the solution was generated isn't mentioned in an announcement I'll treat it as if it was generated the announcement day
Mercados abiertos
SciencePOLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.9pt4%
- September 30+0.3pt1%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 60,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 303,8 mil €
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 202920%
- Before 2028+2.0pt14%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 29,9 M €
POLYMARKETWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- 1+1.0pt75.8%
- 2-4.0pt23.2%
- 3-0.1pt1%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No95%
- Yes+2.9pt5%
- Volumen total
- 1,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 7,2 mil €
KALSHIHow many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Above 0-13.0pt30%
- Above 1-5.0pt19%
- Above 35%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- No97%
- Yes-1.0pt3%
- Volumen total
- 411,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,8 mil €
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- AI wins IMO gold medal in 2026?
- How many gonorrhea cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
- When will an AI lab solve another Millennium Prize Problem?
- Will there be an at least 8.0 magnitude earthquake in California before 2035?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Highest earthquake magnitude in 2026?
- Which countries will have an Ebola case in 2026?
- How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?
- Which countries will report an Ebola case in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91.5% a fecha de 22 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida At least 5 Millennium Prize problems solved by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Will resolve YES for something like the amount of proof we have for Navier-Stokes (e.g. a Lean formalization), I might wait a week or two but I will lean towards accepting proposed solutions rather than waiting forever for extensive verification, unless the solutions are very controversial