Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 98%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado8 nov 24, 0:33 UTC20 ago 28, 3:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the Trade deficit of the US be 10% lower at the end of Trump’s 2nd term
Manifold MarketsNate Silver vs Manifold: Trump 2nd Term Predictions
Manifold MarketsWill Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2026?
PolymarketWill Peter Hegseth be impeached during Trump's second presidential term?
Manifold MarketsLula to finish his presidential term?
FutuurJavier Milei to complete his presidential term in Argentina?
FutuurReglas
Resolution Criteria:
- TL;DR, will Trump be POTUS for ≥42 months and <43 months? Most of these criteria points are covering the corner cases.
- If I missed a corner case, and it happens, market resolves to best judgement.
- Struck-through items are no longer relevant and can be ignored.
- Assume EST time zones for all dates and times. "Exactly 42 months" is defined as the market window from Jul 20, 2028 to Aug 19, 2028, conservatively allowing until 11:59pm on the last day.
- If the inauguration is somehow delayed past Jan 20, 2025 by any number "n" days, shift these dates forward by n days.
Mercados abiertos
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 605,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 697,7 mil €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 resultados más
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 471,3 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 resultados más
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months??
- Está previsto que Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months? se resuelva el 20 de agosto de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Trump's 2nd Presidential term last exactly 42 months??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria: