Will there be a US-China war if Trump gets elected in 2024?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.GeopolíticaChinaElección1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 7:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 85%
Pronosticadores
22
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 horas
Desactualizado15 jul 24, 20:26 UTC20 ene 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the US defeat China in war before 2028?
Manifold MarketsIf Trump gets elected, will Vance get fired?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the US and China be at war? (Unlinked, permanent)
Manifold MarketsWill there be US Constitutional reform by 2027?
Manifold MarketsUS x China agree to pace the AI frontier in 2026?
PolymarketUS x China Military clash before 2027?
PolymarketReglas
- This market will resolve as N/A if Donald J. Trump does not win the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, or if he does not assume the office of President on January 20, 2025.
- - An armed conflict is defined as sustained military engagements involving direct combat between the armed forces of the United States and the People's Republic of China.
- - This market will resolve as YES if an armed conflict occurs between the United States and the People's Republic of China during Trump's presidency.
- - If there is no armed conflict between the United States and the People's Republic of China by the end of Trump's presidency, this market will resolve as NO.
- - The market will resolve on January 21, 2029.
- This allows for the possibility of Trump serving a full four-year term from January 20, 2025, to January 20, 2029.
