Will there be a prion disease outbreak in the United States before 2028 that kills more than 24 people?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.6%
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Actualizado hace 22 minutos
7 oct 24, 21:42 UTC2 ene 28, 7:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Like this one in the UK in the 80s and 90s: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_BSE_outbreak
- Must be above base rate in some sense to be an outbreak.