Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 65.6%Líder entre 3 opciones
Pronosticadores
34
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 17 horas
Desactualizado6 nov 25, 5:24 UTC15 ene 32, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsWhen will SpaceX's AI1 orbital data center be operational?
Manifold MarketsWill there be over 1 GW of data center on the moon by EOY 2032?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Inspired by:
- [tweet]Does not include compute solely in support of normal satellite activities like communication or imaging.
- Update 2025-11-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "compute":
- Current satellite edge computing (e.g., Starlink's onboard processing for communications) does not count toward the 1GW threshold
- Only orbital data centers count - facilities where:
- The customer is indifferent about the data center's location (aside from price)
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 348,3 mil €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 66% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Está previsto que Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031? se resuelva el 15 de enero de 2032.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will there be 1GW of orbital data center compute by EOY 2031??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Inspired by: