When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
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Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2031-2032 35.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
2031-2032 35.2%Pronosticadores
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado11 jun 26, 8:13 UTC31 dic 36, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
