When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
One-OffSpace10a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
2031-2032 35.2%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-0.4 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado11 jun 26, 8:13 UTC31 dic 36, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following:
- Power: At least 1 MW of electrical power dedicated to computing payloads (not total bus power).
- A single spacecraft or a constellation explicitly operated as one integrated compute cluster (e.g., optically interconnected and marketed/operated as a single facility) both qualify.
- Aggregating unrelated satellites does not.
- Operational: The facility has performed commercial or institutional computing workloads for at least 30 consecutive days.
- Demonstrators count only if serving external customers or sustained internal production workloads (e.g., the operator's own training/inference).
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2031-2032 al 35% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational??
- Está previsto que When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The market resolves to the period containing the first date on which a space-based computing facility meets ALL of the following: