Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2031–2032 25.5%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
-0.8 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado18 jun 26, 2:13 UTC1 ene 36, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will the first orbital data center with ≥1 MW of compute power become operational?
Manifold MarketsHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
KalshiWill another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
KalshiAI data center in space by which date?
PolymarketAI data center in space by December 31, 2027? [Polymarket]
Manifold MarketsWill Kevin O'Leary's Utah Data Center project break ground in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?
- This is deliberately set well above "a computer in orbit." A single GPU (Starcloud-1, Nov 2025) or a couple of "nodes" (Axiom, Jan 2026) are about 1 kW class and do not count. 1 MW (roughly 1,000 datacenter-class GPUs) is the threshold where orbital compute becomes real infrastructure rather than a demonstrator.
- Resolves to the year in which the first qualifying facility is first confirmed operational, per a credible company announcement corroborated by at least one major outlet (Reuters, CNBC, Data Center Dynamics, etc.).
- What counts:
- A single spacecraft, or a tightly co-located cluster operating as one data center, delivering >=1 MW of IT/compute power (power drawn by the compute hardware, not total bus/array capacity).
- "Operational" = powered on and running real compute workloads in orbit — not merely launched, not a ground test, not a planned/announced capacity.
Mercados abiertos
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+2.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.4pt9%
- Google-0.7pt2%
+18 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 89,7 mil €
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No55%
- Yes45%
- Volumen total
- 101,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 26,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
- Anthropic-0.5pt72.5%
- OpenAI+0.5pt16.7%
- Google+0.5pt7.8%
+18 resultados más
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-39.0pt41.5%
- Above 9-29.0pt34.1%
- Above 10-4.0pt10.6%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETTesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt47%
- June 30,+2.0pt41%
- February 28,27%
+4 resultados más
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.6pt6%
- Volumen total
- 817,5 mil €
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- AI lab announces another Millennium Prize solution by which date?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- Third-best Text Arena Math AI Lab end of October?
- How many launches will SpaceX have in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2031–2032 al 26% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space??
- Está previsto que When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2036.
- ¿Cómo se liquida When will the first real data center (≥1 MW) be operating in space??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The question: When will the first genuine data center — meaning >=1 MW of compute (IT) power — be operating in space?