Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 85%
Pronosticadores
17
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado16 oct 23, 2:31 UTC2 ene 31, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the IMO grand challenge be completed before the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsVesuvius eruption with 1+ VEI in 2026?
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PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiWill some Millennium Prize Prize Problem be solved in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover
- HOWEVER, the test is not for "at least one known lost work" but rather "at least 85% of one 1000-word-or-more passage".
- This should diverge from @LarsDoucet 's market and result in YES when his would NO in at least the following conditions:
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was already universally incomplete (e.g., if it turns out scribes as of 79 AD already had lost access to part of a work)
- The challenge recovers everything, but the original work stored in the Vesuvius library was locally incomplete (e.g., a particular chapter scroll of a larger work had been by bad luck been borrowed that day by a scribe for copying, and that scribe took the scroll with him when evacuating, and it was lost to history)
- The challenge doesn't recover everything -- we just have less luck recovering consistent long blocks of text, versus fragmentary passages, than Lars hopes.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
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- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
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- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
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- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
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- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 85% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2031.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the Vesuvius Challenge recover at least 85% of one 1000-word passage by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market resolves YES for generally the same criteria as https://manifold.markets/LarsDoucet/will-the-vesuvius-challenge-recover