Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections?
US PoliticsGeopolíticaOne-OffMiddle East1mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 79%
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33
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado3 abr 26, 17:21 UTC5 nov 26, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026:
- Formal agreement: A ceasefire, armistice, or peace agreement is signed by authorized representatives of both the US and Iranian governments.
- Operational cessation: Active military operations (airstrikes, ground combat, naval engagements) between US and Iranian forces have ceased for 14 or more consecutive days.
- Both conditions must be confirmed by at least two of: AP, Reuters, AFP, BBC, or NYT.
- Resolves NO if active hostilities are ongoing or no formal agreement exists as of November 3, 2026.
- Context: The US-Israel war against Iran began February 28, 2026.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Está previsto que Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections? se resuelva el 5 de noviembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the US-Iran war end before the 2026 midterm elections??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if BOTH conditions are met before November 3, 2026: