Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
PolíticaOne-OffPolítica de EE. UU.GeopolíticaRusia / UcraniaChina1a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 81.9%
Pronosticadores
21
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 horas
Desactualizado6 feb 26, 0:13 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, removing the last binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals.
- This market resolves YES if the US and Russia engage in a sustained, mutual increase in deployed strategic nuclear warheads or delivery systems that represents a clear departure from pre-2026 patterns.
- Resolution will be based on official declarations, public statements from US and Russian government officials, and verified data from credible sources such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Congressional Budget Office, and the US Department of Defense.
- An arms race requires demonstrable action—not merely the absence of a treaty—such as:
- Announcements of significant new nuclear weapons deployments or production programs
