Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb?
PolíticaGeopolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElecciónMiddle East2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 90.7%
Pronosticadores
40
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado12 mar 26, 20:05 UTC20 ene 29, 20:49 UTC
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FutuurReglas
This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.
- If a nuclear weapon is confirmed detonated by the United States government, this market resolves Yes.
- This includes weapons testing (but not just hypothetical theories about Richter scale readings in Nevada).
- In order for a denied event (test or strike) to count, the evidence would have to be widely acknowledged by mainstream media, ie.
- CNN and WaPo and the BBC all saying that there was a seismic event AND a radioactive event AND major inside sources all saying the same thing.
- This can also resolve Yes if a US proxy uses a nuclear device with the Trump administration's confirmed approval and assistance, such as if the US provides Israel with a nuclear device and with intelligence to deploy it, which is then detonated.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb??
- Está previsto que Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb? se resuelva el 20 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the Trump administration detonate a nuclear bomb??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: This market regards the current Trump/Vance administration, including if J.D. Vance takes over from Donald Trump for any reason in the current presidential term ending January 20th, 2029.