Will the party that wins the 2024 US presidential election win the 2028 presidential election
PolíticaOne-OffUS PoliticsElección2a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 61.2%
Pronosticadores
19
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado20 oct 24, 11:02 UTC21 ene 29, 21:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Will resolve based off of Wikipedia determination of election winner, if unclear due to electoral college tie or lack of electoral college majority it will resolve based on whoever is inaugurated after the 2028 presidential election
- In the rare likelihood that the 2028 is not a clear "democrats vs republicans" eg. the GOP splits into a trump faction and non trump faction, I'll resolve according to the endorsement of the previous president (meaning if trump wins in 2024 and backs some outside candidate in the 2028 general election that doesn't carry the GOP tag, for this to resolve to yes the trump backed outsider would need to win)
