Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (94.4%)
Resuelto: 1 oct 2026, 0:40
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Aviso de calidad de datosDatos obsoletos
Datos del 1 oct 2026, 11:53 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes94.4%
No5.599999999999994%
Ganada
Perdida
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich model will have a higher ECI score end of November, Opus 5.5 or GPT-6 Astra?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketReglas
resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out.
- Flash/instant/mini doesn't count.
- Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay