Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 89.5%
Pronosticadores
76
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 18 minutos
19 may 26, 1:01 UTC1 oct 26, 1:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the next full gemini model be frontier at coding?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of March 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill any model at least as good as Claude Fable 5 and 10x cheaper be released by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWill OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
PolymarketReglas
resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out.
- Flash/instant/mini doesn't count.
- Should be pro or similar. 3.2 pro-preview, 3.5 pro, 4 pro all okay
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 90% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding??
- Está previsto que Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding? se resuelva el 1 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will the next full gemini model be as good as opus 4.7 or gpt 5.5 at coding??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: resolves to my impression a week or two after launch and I've had the opportunity to try it out.