Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableAviso de calidad de datosDatos de la fuente degradados
Datos del 25 oct 2026, 20:28 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Pronóstico comunitario actualNo 92.6%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado8 jul 26, 20:01 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
GAAIA is a bipartisan bill in Congress being proposed by Jay Obernolte (R-CA) and Lori Trahan (D-MA).
- Here is an article about the substance by Charlie Bullock: https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/congress-should-do-something--the-case-for-(fixing)-the-great-american-ai-act
- I can't really figure out what the status is.
- This market uses an expansive definition of "become law".
- It resolves YES if the bill is passed and becomes law in 2026, even if it is somewhat watered down or modified, as long as it remains an AI regulation and/or preemption bill.
- It also resolves YES if the bill's substantive provisions are fully folded into another bill which becomes law, though it resolves NO if only super dumb and toothless provisions make it in.