Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual2034 73%Líder entre 6 opciones
Pronosticadores
61
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 21 horas
Desactualizado5 nov 23, 17:48 UTC31 dic 40, 22:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
When will the first human EXTEND artificial womb trial happen?
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KalshiWhen will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
KalshiHow many human screwworm cases will be reported in the United States in 2026?
KalshiReglas
Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.
- All years after the year this happens will resolve to YES, e.g. if it happens in 2029, then 2031, 2034, 2037, 2040... all resolve YES
- Disclaimers:
- This question is part of Foresight’s 2023 Vision Weekends to help spark discussion amongst participants, so the phrasing and resolution criteria may be vaguer than I would normally like for this site.
- Apologies for that.
- We thought it would still be useful to make the market public to potentially inform other discussions.
Mercados abiertos
Health & Medicine
POLYMARKETHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.2pt97%
- Yes+0.2pt3%
- Volumen total
- 15,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 20,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+0.6pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 8 mil €
POLYMARKETFDA approves skin cancer vaccine by which date?
- December 31,+4.0pt65%
- September41%
- June28%
- Volumen total
- 84,1 mil €
POLYMARKETEbola pandemic in 2026?
- No-0.1pt97%
- Yes+0.1pt3%
- Volumen total
- 652,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3,4 mil €
KALSHIMeasles cases in 2026?
- Above 300099%
- Above 400097%
- Above 6000-4.0pt58%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 865,4 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 3 mil €
POLYMARKETNew pandemic in 2026?
- No+1.0pt94.1%
- Yes-1.0pt5.9%
- Volumen total
- 915,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,2 mil €
- When will the FDA approve Intellia Therapeutics' lonvo-z?
- Will 3 mg THC beverages be federally legal to sell?
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?
- Cyclosporiasis cases reported in the US in 2026?
- FDA decision: Bepirovirsen by GlaxoSmithKline (in 2026)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during Trump's term?
- Will the FDA approve CagriSema?
- When will the FDA reclassify BPC-157 to Category 1?
- FDA decision: Saroglitazar by Zydus Therapeutics (in 2026)
- FDA decision: Ifinatamab Deruxtecan by Daiichi Sankyo (in 2026)
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ??
- Manifold Markets cotiza 2034 al 73% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ??
- Está previsto que Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2040.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an artificial womb deliver a live human baby by ... ??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Defined as a human being gestated in a synthetic environment that replicates the conditions of a biological mother's uterus and being.