Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffIA1mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.2%
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25
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Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado20 oct 22, 13:04 UTC20 oct 26, 21:59 UTC
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The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.
- A hope is that understanding how reward maps to behavior is more tractable than Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment, and that we therefore might be able to solve alignment without solving Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Shard Theory and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 88% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? se resuelva el 20 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will tailcalled think that the Shard Theory alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The Shard Theory research program by Team Shard is based on the idea that we should directly study the what types of cognition/circuitry are encouraged by reinforcement learning, and reason mechanistically about how reward leads to them, rather than the classic Outer Alignment/Inner Alignment factorization which aims to create a reward function that matches human values and somehow give an AI a goal of maximizing that reward.