Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026?
One-OffIA1mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 87.4%
Pronosticadores
36
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 2 horas
Desactualizado20 oct 22, 12:55 UTC20 oct 26, 21:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.
- A hope is that by studying these natural abstractions and the cognitive algorithms that use them, we might produce improved interpretability tools.
- In 4 years, I will evaluate Natural Abstractions and decide whether there have been any important good results since today.
- I will probably ask some of the alignment researchers I most respect (such as John Wentworth or Steven Byrnes) for advice about the assessment, unless it is dead-obvious.
- About me: I have been following AI and alignment research on and off for years, and have a somewhat reasonable mathematical background to evaluate it.
- I tend to have an informal idea of the viability of various alignment proposals, though it's quite possible that idea might be wrong.
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 87% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Está previsto que Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026? se resuelva el 20 de octubre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will tailcalled think that the Natural Abstractions alignment research program has achieved something important by October 20th, 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: The Natural Abstractions research program by John Wentworth is based on the idea that our world might be well-described by simple concepts which any method of cognition will end up converging upon.