Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 98.8%
Pronosticadores
24
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado1 mar 25, 9:10 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
In what year will SpaceX first launch Starship more times than Falcon 9?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurHow many Starships will launch before a Starship lands on the Moon?
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KalshiSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurReglas
SpaceX has announced plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window.
- This window represents the optimal time for launches between Earth and Mars when the planets are properly aligned, requiring less fuel and time for the journey.
- Elon Musk has publicly stated this goal as part of SpaceX's broader Mars colonization program.
- The Starship is SpaceX's next-generation fully reusable spacecraft designed for missions to the Moon, Mars, and beyond.
- It consists of the Starship spacecraft (upper stage) and the Super Heavy booster (first stage).
- Resolution Criteria
Mercados abiertos
Regulation
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volumen total
- 12,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 182,3 mil €
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-16.0pt33%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
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- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-7.0pt43%
+8 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 202795%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T-0.1pt20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T+0.1pt18.4%
+5 resultados más
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026??
- Está previsto que Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will SpaceX launch a Starship to Mars by the end of 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: SpaceX has announced plans to launch five uncrewed Starships to Mars during the 2026 Earth-Mars transfer window.