Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (95.7%)
Resuelto: 6 ago 2026, 16:50
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 95.7%
Pronosticadores
144
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 días
Desactualizado2 ago 26, 21:406 ago 26, 16:50
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes95.7%
No4.299999999999997%
95.7%
4.3%
Reglas
Something happens is defined as anything that:
- Zvi does not know about on August 2, 2026 at 5pm EST (he knows about the math proofs, which will be Monday's post)
- Obligates (not merely allows) a speed premium post to Don't Worry About the Vase
- Is about AI.
- The speed premium post can happen after Friday, but the central events that trigger it must occur by Friday 5pm eastern.
- Resolves YES if this happens.
