Will russia attack and/or occupy european NATO area until EOY2029? And if so, where will that happen first?
PolíticaGeopolítica3a
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNot on NATO area/Not at all 70%Líder entre 7 opciones
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
multiple choice
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Cambio 7d
0.0 pts
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 33 minutos
23 may 25, 16:15 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to the first European NATO member state that Russia attacks and/or occupies between May 23, 2025, and December 31, 2029.
- An "attack" is defined as a military assault involving Russian armed forces crossing into the territory of a NATO member state. "Occupation" refers to Russian forces establishing control over any part of a NATO member state's territory.
- The market will resolve based on credible reports from reputable news organizations or official government statements confirming such an event.
- If no such attack or occupation occurs by the end of 2029, the market will resolve to "the named outcome."
- Tensions between Russia and NATO have escalated in recent years, particularly following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
