Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 53.7%
Pronosticadores
10
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 3 horas
Desactualizado25 feb 26, 19:14 UTC1 ene 27, 19:08 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Quroe's favourite animal prop bets - It ______
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Manifold MarketsWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiReglas
Referencing this market:
- (https://manifold.markets/embed/Quroe/what-is-quroes-favorite-animal)Hopefully it will manifestly obvious™ (i.e. wildly different shape/structure to human e.g. a dog or horse wouldn't count, a cat [barbed penis] or hyena [external vagina] would count imo) but I'm willing to defer to a Manifold poll if it's hotly contested
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The norm for the species is what counts, not malformations or abnormalities.
- A private part only qualifies as "wacky" if the unusual structure is standard/default for that animal.
- Update 2026-05-06 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Penile bones (baculum) do not count as wacky private parts for resolution purposes, as they are common among our closest primate relatives and don't produce a strong "wait wtf" reaction.
- The bar for "wacky" is set higher — examples like snail love darts or spider genitalia are the intended reference point.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+19.9pt95%
- Before 2030+6.0pt82%
- Before 2029+7.3pt55%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 226,3 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 125,2 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029+1.0pt21%
- Before 202813%
- Before 2027+0.1pt5%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2030+71.0pt92%
- Before 2035+11.0pt56%
- Before 203248%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 108,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No97%
- Yes-0.9pt3%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
POLYMARKETMin Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- 4.4-4.6m+18.6pt65.7%
- 4.2-4.4m-20.9pt26.5%
- 4.6-4.8m+0.8pt2.9%
+4 resultados más
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 54% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Está previsto que Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Quroe's favourite animal have wacky private parts??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Referencing this market: