Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIATecnología1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 94.9%
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3
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binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado12 jun 26, 9:44 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
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- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
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- 325 mil €
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2028.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "PSA: Almost nobody is working on alignment" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.