Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 67.8%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 4 horas
Desactualizado16 abr 26, 12:05 UTC31 dic 27, 12:48 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Reglas
By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)
- Unrelated legal troubles (DUIs, or him being caught doing drugs, or being sued for SAing someone in a frat party) will not be considered.
- I will not bet on this market.
Mercados abiertos
Crime & Justice
POLYMARKETTyler Robinson convicted of homicide?
- No+11.5pt65%
- Yes-11.5pt35%
- Volumen total
- 347,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 12,4 mil €
POLYMARKETTrump out as President before 2027?
- No94.1%
- Yes5.9%
- Volumen total
- 9,8 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,8 mil €
POLYMARKETLindsay Clancy convicted of murder by which date?
- 2027-2.0pt21%
- 2026-0.1pt5%
- Volumen total
- 498,6 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 6,1 mil €
POLYMARKETIran charges Hormuz fees by which date?
- December 31+1.5pt28%
- October 31-0.5pt12%
- September 30-0.5pt7%
+3 resultados más
POLYMARKETMaduro Prison Time?
- No prison time+1.5pt42.6%
- 60++1.5pt38.6%
- 20–40+1.4pt10.9%
+2 resultados más
POLYMARKETAndrew Tate released from custody by which date?
- December 31-7.5pt13%
- July 31-0.1pt0%
- August 31-0.6pt0%
- Who will be arrested in 2026?
- Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
- Who will be named in Epstein files released in 2026?
- Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
- Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
- James Comey charges dropped by December 31?
- Tom Lee charged by December 31?
- Hasan Piker arrested in 2026?
- Will Yale settle with DOJ over Law School admissions?
- Andrew Tate Extradited to UK by which date?
- Epstein confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 68% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"??
- Está previsto que Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Nick Shirley suffer legal consequences for his "reporting"??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: By legal consequences I mean: 1) Having the cops called on him and landing himself in jail overnight, even if the case later gets dropped 2) Getting sued in a strong enough case that it would survive to trial (doesn't get tossed in a motion to dismiss or summary judgement), or forces a significant cash settlement (settlement values may not be public, I'll use my best judgement)