Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 79.4%
Pronosticadores
27
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado6 mar 26, 4:46 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.
- Resolves YES if that bill is substantively included in another bill or package that passes this year as well, or if it’s resubmitted under a different number.
- Generally, I will attempt to resolve in the spirit of this question, not the explicit letter of these criteria.
- S-7263 is a bill seeking to regulate AIs giving medical/legal/professional advice, allowing people to sue chatbot owners who violate this ban.
- If S-7263 is substantially amended to the point that it is in my estimation no longer substantively similar to its current form (let’s say, 80% less potent or different from its current form) then this will resolve NO.
- In gray areas, I may resolve to PROB, judging from a consensus of credible reporting and feedback from other Manifold moderators.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
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- 135,2 mil €
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- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
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- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
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- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
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- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
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- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 79% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 2026??
- Está previsto que Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will New York pass a law regulating AI giving professional advice (S-7263) in 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if S-7263 passes within 2026.