Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 98.6%
Pronosticadores
111
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 9 minutos
4 jun 26, 5:12 UTC3 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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KalshiWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
KalshiReglas
A year from now (market creation date)
- Update 2026-06-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Resolves YES if mathematicians widely agree the proof is probably valid by the deadline.
- Resolves NO if mathematicians are widely uncertain, skeptical, or do not consider it solved.
Mercados abiertos
ScienceKALSHIWhen will the next Millennium Prize be awarded?
- Before 2035+10.0pt85%
- Before 2030+7.0pt83%
- Before 2029+17.9pt50%
+2 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 211 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 110,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
- December 31+0.1pt4%
- September 30+0.1pt1%
- April 300%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWill the U.S. confirm that aliens exist?
- Before Jan 20, 2029-1.0pt20%
- Before 202812%
- Before 20275%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 28,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 21,3 mil €
KALSHIWill WHO declare Hantavirus a Public Health Emergency of International Concern this Year?
- No96%
- Yes+1.9pt4%
- Volumen total
- 1,6 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 5,2 mil €
KALSHIWhen will Intellia Therapeutics submit a BLA for Lonvo-z?
- before October+64.0pt98%
- before 2027+22.0pt98%
- before December+30.0pt98%
+3 resultados más
KALSHIWhen will the Riemann hypothesis be solved?
- Before 2035+4.0pt49%
- Before 2030+18.0pt39%
- Before 2032-9.0pt39%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- Will 2026 be the hottest year ever?
- Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027?
- Which country will be the next to send humans to the Moon?
- Min Arctic sea ice extent this summer?
- When will Compass Pathways submit a NDA for COMP360 psilocybin?
- How many 5.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- How many major Atlantic hurricanes will there be in 2026?
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
- How many 6.5 or above earthquakes worldwide September 7 - September 13?
- Natural Disaster in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 99% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027? se resuelva el 3 de junio de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Navier-Stokes be considered solved on June 3th 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: A year from now (market creation date)