Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 62.1%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado10 jun 22, 16:13 UTC2 jul 32, 3:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Scott recently wrote about Luria asking questions to some Uzbek peasants in the 1930s here:
- https://astralcodexten.substack.com/p/somewhat-contra-marcus-on-ai-scaling?s=r
- The thing is, Kyrgyz and Uzbeks (after 80 years of mass literacy) are not exactly high in the IQ department TODAY -Kyrgyz scored around the equivalent of 75 on the 2009 PISA.
- Given it would be trivial for someone to visit Central Asia today (Kyrgyzstan would be easiest for a number of reasons), would Luria's observations replicate today? Resolves if someone travels to Uzbekistan/Kyrgyzstan/Tajikistan/southern Kazakhstan with this intention after I've posted this question and writes a detailed account of his observations.
- If the observations do not replicate Luria's at all, this question will resolve No. If they strongly replicate, it will resolve Yes.
- If it's a mixture, it will resolve to % on the basis of the agreement with Luria's observations.