Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
Sí 77.1%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado19 ene 24, 4:14 UTC2 ene 30, 6:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors.
- The LLM must provide feedback to >50% of reviewed papers (though human peer-review could still happen alongside the LLM).
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
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- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 77% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030??
- Está previsto que Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolve to YES if by Jan. 1, 2030, any journal with the Science or Nature family of journals announces or implements a policy in which LLMs (or another type of AI model) are used to provide peer-review feedback to authors.