Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029
IAOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualSí 84%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado23 dic 25, 20:21 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will LLMs be used for academic peer review by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent autonomously discover and report a novel security vulnerability (assigned CVE) by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill an AI agent be directly convicted of a crime before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI Agent end of September?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of September?
PolymarketSecond-best AI Agent Lab end of October?
PolymarketReglas
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if, by December 2029, an agentic AI system autonomously performs an academically rigorous analysis of LHC particle physics data that passes peer review by experimental particle physicists.
- Given ~100 PB of LHC pre-reconstruction data and a prompt like "measure the Standard Model Higgs mass" or "evaluate this Beyond the Standard Model scenario," the agent must autonomously:
- Plan and execute the full analysis chain
- Perform low-level preprocessing/reconstruction on distributed computing
- Design analysis strategy (triggers, event selection, object definitions)
Mercados abiertos
AI
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029?
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 84% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029?
- Está previsto que Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an AI agent autonomously perform peer-review-quality LHC particle physics analysis by December 2029?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution Criteria