Will "Lightcone Commons" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffCiencia1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 88.4%
Pronosticadores
6
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado23 jul 26, 19:26 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Chicken-Free Egg Whites" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Dario probably doesn't believe in superintell..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill the US confirm that aliens exist by which date?
PolymarketWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Lightcone Commons is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
