Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 51.9%
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36
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado25 may 25, 20:34 UTC31 dic 27, 21:32 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will the OpenAI hardware device be a portable puck that sees, speaks, and moves?
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PolymarketWill Anthropic announce a consumer hardware product in 2026?
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KalshiBest AI in Sep 2026?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketReglas
Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.
- Resolves N/A if no hardware product before 2028.
- Update 2025-05-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated they are intentionally not defining "flop" further.
- Resolution will be based on their subjective judgment, using the standard of "I'll know it when I see it".
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028-2.0pt59.8%
- 2027-8.0pt30.8%
- 2026+1.0pt9.3%
- Volumen total
- 225,9 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 157 mil €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.5pt58.1%
- ChatGPT+1.4pt26.7%
- Grok-2.4pt5.7%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+6.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-max+7.0pt9%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+6.0pt79.1%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.8%
- Gemini2.7%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 348,3 mil €
- OpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Tencent market share this week
- Anthropic market share this week
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- OpenAI market share this week
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- DeepSeek market share this week
- Will Anthropic announce a Millennium Prize solution?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 52% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Está previsto que Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will I think OpenAI's first hardware product is a flop??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Examples of flops: Humane AI pin, Rabbit R1, Google Glass.