Will Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?
Crimen y justiciaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 97.5%
Pronosticadores
8
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado15 ene 23, 17:20 UTC31 dic 29, 23:59 UTC
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Reglas
Resolves "Yes" if there is credible reporting, or legal documents, showing that Holden Karnofsky (Open Philanthropy, GiveWell) has been criminally charged with any felony crime.
- Resolves "No" if this does not happen by Jan 1st, 2030.
- Part of a large question series.
- Question is global -- charges in any country count.
- Charges count even if they do not lead to a conviction, were settled before a conviction, or if he was found not guilty.
- Minor misdemeanors do not count, only more serious (i.e. "felony") charges.
