Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
One-OffUS PoliticsSociety & Culture4mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.3%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 21 horas
Desactualizado20 oct 25, 17:24 UTC1 feb 27, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Update on the Alex Bores campaign" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Relitigating the Race to Build Friendly AI" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "Church Planting: When Venture Capital Finds Jesus" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Prince Andrew testify publicly before Congress in 2026?
PredictItGraham Platner divorce by October 31?
PolymarketReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of the RAISE Act is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
Mercados abiertos
US PoliticsPOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+4.0pt100%
- $25M+6.0pt100%
- $50M+12.2pt99%
+11 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,2 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 1,8 M €
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84%
- Republican Party+1.0pt16%
- Volumen total
- 25,1 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 812,5 mil €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17.4%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez+1.0pt16.3%
- Gavin Newsom13.3%
+45 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 183,7 M €
- Volumen 24h
KALSHIRhode Island Democratic Governor nominee?
- Helena Foulkes-1.4pt98%
- Dan McKee+1.6pt2%
- Gregory Stevens-0.1pt0%
- Volumen total
- 766,5 mil €
KALSHI2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?
- D-House, D-Senate46.6%
- D-House, R-Senate35.9%
- R-House, R-Senate15.5%
+1 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 10,5 M €
- Volumen 24h
POLYMARKETPrime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- Gadi Eizenkot+3.1pt57.6%
- Benjamin Netanyahu-0.5pt28.3%
- Naftali Bennett-1.0pt7.1%
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
- Texas Senate winner?
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- NJ-07 House winner?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Which states will redistrict before the midterms?
- IA-01 House winner?
- What will Trump say during the RNC Midterm Convention (Night 1)?
- Which party will win the House in 2026?
- MN-01 House winner?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 91% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Está previsto que Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review? se resuelva el 1 de febrero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will "Consider donating to Alex Bores, author of th..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.