Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
US PoliticsOne-OffIATecnología3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 59.4%
Pronosticadores
3
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 12 horas
Desactualizado18 ago 26, 3:44 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 59% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.