Will cold showers be shown to be an effective treatment for depression by 2030
One-OffSalud y medicinaCiencia2aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 82%
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22
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 50 minutos
Retrasado25 mar 24, 4:33 UTC31 dic 28, 12:59 UTC
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Resolves positively if, by my estimation, there is convincing evidence that cold showers are an effective treatment for depression by 2030.
- There is currently some evidence- theoretical and empirical- for an effect, but there is a paucity of large studies specifically on the effect of showers on depression.
- I will consider the effect of cold showers demonstrated if there are at least two peer-reviewed experimental studies random allocation to conditions showing a statistically significant (or Bayesian equivalent) effect on depression which is, in my view, large enough to be clinically significant.
- Especially given the low cost of the treatment, the bar to being considered clinically significant is not especially high- for example, if 30% of participants fell below the cutoff for depression in the treatment condition, and only 20% in the control condition, I would consider that clinically significant.
- Although multiple controlled studies in a peer-reviewed journal are the most likely route to a positive resolution, I might accept other evidence at my discretion- for example, a single study large and rigorous enough that I consider it decisive on its own.
- I will not bet in this market.
