Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 54.8%
Pronosticadores
2
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado11 oct 26, 22:49 UTC31 dic 40, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Reglas
Resolves YES if there is strong evidence that Artificial Superintelligence (ASI) is more aligned with the interests of the wealthiest 1% of humanity than with those of the remaining 99% as of January 1, 2040.
- For this question, "alignment" refers to whose interests, preferences, and well-being ASI systems ultimately prioritize, particularly when the interests of the wealthiest 1% conflict with those of the remaining 99%.
- The 1% is defined by global net wealth.
- ASI refers to AI systems that substantially exceed the cognitive capabilities of the most capable humans across a broad range of important domains.
- If multiple ASI systems exist, their overall behavior and influence should be considered.
- This market resolves on January 1, 2040, using the best available evidence and methods at that time.
