Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027
RegulaciónIAOne-OffChinaEurope3mManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 85.6%
Pronosticadores
13
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 8 horas
Desactualizado19 mar 26, 16:50 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if any country officially bans or heavily restricts the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027.
- Resolution is based on official government announcements or legislation that explicitly prohibits or substantially restricts deployment of advanced AI systems (such as large language models, foundation models, or general-purpose AI systems).
- A "ban" means prohibition of use or deployment.
- A "heavy restriction" means requirements that effectively prevent widespread commercial use, such as: mandatory licensing with severe limitations, operational bans in key sectors, or restrictions requiring systems to be substantially modified or disabled.
- Restrictions on specific AI applications (e.g., biometric surveillance, emotion recognition) do not count unless they effectively prevent the use of advanced AI systems broadly.
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 86% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Está previsto que Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027 se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will any country officially ban or heavily restrict the use of advanced AI systems before January 1, 2027?
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolution criteria