Will "Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
One-OffIA1aManifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 86.2%
Pronosticadores
1
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 14 horas
Desactualizado3 jun 26, 1:09 UTC1 feb 28, 0:00 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will "Announcing the Corrigibility Research Fund" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill Marius Binner Win the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge 2026
Manifold MarketsWill "Help me launch Obsolete: a book aimed at buil..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsWill "If Mythos actually made Anthropic employees 4..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic announces bankruptcy by which date?
PolymarketWill a non-lab AI-only effort solve a Millennium Problem in 2026?
Manifold MarketsReglas
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post Announcing the ARC White-Box Estimation Challenge is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
