¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027??

Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

IAOne-OffTecnología10m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 74.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 horas

Desactualizado

31 jul 26, 13:09 UTC31 jul 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

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Reglas

Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.

Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
[Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
No strategic assistance.

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

IAOne-OffTecnología10m

Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 74.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 11 horas

Desactualizado

31 jul 26, 13:09 UTC31 jul 27, 23:59 UTC

Tendencias

Resultado24hProbabilidad

Mercados Relacionados

Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.

LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

Manifold Markets

Will Slay the Spire 2 release Act 4 before a new alternate act?

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LLM agent is able to reliably beat Slay the Spire 2 before EOY 2027

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Best AI at the end of 2026?

Kalshi

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

Polymarket

Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?

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Reglas

Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.

Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
[Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
No strategic assistance.

Reportar un problema de datos de este mercado

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027??: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 74% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027??: Está previsto que Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027? se resuelva el 31 de julio de 2027.
¿Cómo se liquida Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?

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