Will an available out-of-the-box LLM get >40% win rate on Slay the Spire A20 before August 2027?
IAOne-OffTecnología9m
Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualSí 58.7%
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21
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 31 minutos
31 jul 26, 13:09 UTC31 jul 27, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiReglas
Resolves to YES if any LLM has a long term >40% win rate on Ascension 20 Slay the Spire, averaged across all four characters.
- Resolve to NO if this does not happen.
- [Note, the best human players can get >80% win rates, so this gives the AI slack to win only half as often.]
- To qualify, the AI must be available to the public, and must be 'out of the box' without a custom harness, fine tuning or other extensive attempts to train or coach it to play Slay the Spire in particular in a structured way.
- Human interaction during the runs is limited to resolving technical issues, such as securing more compute or fixing IO issues, or telling it to continue.
- No strategic assistance.