Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptableEste mercado se resolvió: Yes (94.6%)
Resuelto: 13 ago 2026, 21:03
Resolución verificada por el proveedor
CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.
Pronóstico comunitario actualSí 94.6%
Pronosticadores
48
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 7 días
Desactualizado22 jul 26, 16:2613 ago 26, 21:03
Cronología de Probabilidad
Yes94.6%
No5.400000000000006%
94.6%
5.4%
Reglas
This market resolves yes if any Anthropic model is credibly reported to have hacked another entity without being explicitly told to do so in 2026.
- Unsuccessful attempts to do so do not count, Anthropic's model must actually break into the other entity's systems.
- For the purposes of this question, an entity could be a corporation, a non-profit, or a government, or any other similar entity that could come under cyberattack.
- Reporting of such an incident will be considered credible if Anthropic and the entity hacked acknowledge the hack, with Anthropic claiming it was done without explicit instructions.
- If an Anthropic model hacks an entity's systems, while being told to do so by a human, this would NOT count.
- I may wait for corroborating media reports to resolve the market, but the first report of such an incident must happen in 2026 (i.e. if an incident happened in December of 2026, but it wasn't reported on until January of 2027, this would not count).
