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Desactualizado26 ago 25, 20:371 ene 29, 23:59
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2029 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337
- In line with progress in AI Minecraft (https://voyager.minedojo.org/), will there be a public announcement of a fully autonomous AI system which can defeat the Ender Dragon before Jan 1, 2029? To establish an objective baseline of competence and consistency in achieving this task, I'll stipulate that such a system must beat the Ender Dragon in less than 150 minutes of in-game time (deaths allowed) in at least 1% of runs.
- Systems which are pretrained on human data are allowed.
- The system must only use observational data that includes what a human player would be able to see while playing the game (including the debug screen), like the Minedojo simulator.
- Systems which have active access to external reference information (like a Wiki) are fine, as long as it does not include additional information on the specific world that the agent is playing in.
- 2026 Version: https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-CPpOcyROzc
Mercados abiertos
AI
POLYMARKETNext Mythos-Class Model released by which date?
- September 30+7.5pt100%
- September 15+11.9pt100%
- September 9+18.4pt100%
+8 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 1,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 613,3 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra released by which date?
- October 31+4.3pt96%
- September 30-0.9pt84%
- September 2581%
+8 resultados más
POLYMARKETNext Google Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released by which date?
- September 30-1.0pt96%
- October 31-1.4pt96%
- September 11+43.5pt91%
+7 resultados más
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+0.1pt65.4%
- ChatGPT+2.8pt15.9%
- Grok-1.7pt9.3%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 8,3 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+0.5pt95%
- October 31,90%
- October 15,-2.0pt68%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETBest Chinese AI Company end of September?
- Alibaba+16.5pt76.8%
- Moonshot-9.8pt13.1%
- Z.ai-6.5pt6.1%
+8 resultados más
- Next Mythos-Class Model released on?
- GPT-6 released by which date?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI release GPT-6?
- In which month will Anthropic IPO?
- When will OpenAI release Astra?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Which company has best AI model end of 2026?
- Yulia Putintseva vs Belinda Bencic
- Next Gemini Flash Model (3.8+) released on?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029??
- Manifold Markets cotiza Yes al 82% a fecha de 1 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029??
- Está previsto que Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2029.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will an AI Minecraft Agent defeat the Ender Dragon before 2029??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: 2029 version of https://manifold.markets/AdamK/will-an-ai-minecraft-agent-defeat-t-a3b3eb99c337