Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosBien calibradoPronóstico comunitario actualNo 77%
Pronosticadores
4
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 11 horas
Desactualizado14 ago 26, 1:17 UTC31 dic 30, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Activos Sensibles al Macro
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
If Javier Milei abolishes the Central Bank of Argentina, will it cause a recession or financial crisis?
Manifold MarketsWhen will the next US recession be?
Manifold MarketsIn what year will the next US recession begin?
Manifold MarketsWill China have an economic recession induced by overcapacity before EOY 2030?
Manifold MarketsRecession this year?
KalshiRecession in 2027?
KalshiReglas
Has to be an event or consequence caused by AI that then leads to a recession.
- So a major hack of the big banks that causes a panic that leads to a recession would count.
- Also AI replacing so many jobs that there is mass unemployment that leads to a recession would also count.
- However, a simple bubble burst of AI stock leading to a recession would NOT count, as that is not AI doing an act that causes the recession; has to be a recession that results from AI actions or consequences of AI implementation.
- As recessions can have multiple causes, it just needs to be frequently cited as one of the primary causes based on media and scholarly understanding.
- I will make a judgment call if open to debate.