Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 95%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 13 horas
Desactualizado17 sept 25, 8:55 UTC30 sept 26, 22:59 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
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PolymarketReglas
Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024, and September 2025.
- According to Gallup, only 1 in 10 Americans believe AI will "do more good than harm", whereas 3 in 10 Americans believe AI will do "more harm than good".
- About half of Americans think AI will do equal amounts of harm and good.
- This question resolves YES if Gallup polling for 2026 shows more Americans believe AI will do "more good than harm" compared to Americans who believe AI will "do more harm than good".
- [image]For example, if Americans who see AI as good rise from 12% to 25%, and Americans who see AI as bad drop from 31% to 24%, then this question would resolve YES, since more Americans are favourable than disfavourable.
- Americans who think there will be equal parts good and bad do not matter for the purposes of this question.
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2026, according to Gallup??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 95% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2026, according to Gallup??
- Está previsto que Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2026, according to Gallup? se resuelva el 30 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Americans believe AI does more good than harm in 2026, according to Gallup??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Gallup began polling Americans on their beliefs about artificial intelligence in 2023, publishing their most recent results in August 2024, and September 2025.