Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actual
No 91.9%
Pronosticadores
18
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 6 horas
Desactualizado25 oct 24, 23:02 UTC1 ene 27, 4:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will Alex O'Connor profess Christianity before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Scott Alexander convert to Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBart Ehrman Will Convert to Esoteric/Gnostic Christianity before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
PolymarketWho will the next Pope be?
KalshiReglas
if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.
- The market resolves YES if he converts to Christianity in a meaningful way, ie if the average person would look at his actions and would describe him as having converted to christianity.
- Resolves NO in 2027 otherwise.
Mercados abiertos
ReligionKALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No88%
- Yes-38.0pt12%
- Volumen total
- 10,5 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,5 mil €
POLYMARKETWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?
- No99%
- Yes1%
- Volumen total
- 56,4 M €
- Volumen 24h
- 9,2 mil €
KALSHIWho will the next Pope be?
- Luis Antonio Tagle5%
- Pietro Parolin-0.8pt4%
- Matteo Zuppi4%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 118 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 4,3 €
POLYMARKETWill the Catholic Church publicly excommunicate anyone else in 2026?
- No-0.5pt90%
- Yes+0.5pt10%
- Volumen total
- 797,6 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
PREDICTITWill the Pope excommunicate JD Vance before 2028?
- No96%
- Yes4%
- Volumen total
- 674,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
FUTUURRestrictions on the use of the Traditional Latin Mass in the Catholic Church: loosened in 2026?
- No81%
- Yes19%
- Volumen total
- 3,1 €
- Volumen 24h
- —
- GutsickGibbon has agreed to teach evolution to creationist Will Duffy. Will Pastor Duffy change his mind? (Rules below)
- Will the next pope convene Vatican 3?
- Catholic Church in Germany ordains women before Christmas 2028?
- Will the Catholic and Eastern Orthodox Churches reconcile before 2050?
- Will membership in the LDS church decline YoY in any year between now and 2030
- Will @Austin Chen still believe in God at the end of 2026?
- What percentage of humans will follow Islam in 2100?
- Will there be a trend spike for the term "Animism" before 2035?
- Will Robin Hanson adopt a religion by mid 2028
- Scientology loses IRS Tax-exempt status
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 9 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Está previsto que Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027? se resuelva el 1 de enero de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will Alex O'Connor convert to Christinanity before 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: if he says "i'm a christian in a way" in a context where christian is defined in a non-standard way that means he's only technically a christian in the context of that convo, but he doesn't believe god probably exists or jesus was resurrected or something, that would not be sufficient to resolve this market positively.