Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 80.3%
Pronosticadores
337
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado28 jul 23, 17:46 UTC2 ene 27, 7:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
IF artificial superintelligence exists by 2030, will AI wipe out humanity by 2030? [resolves N/A in 2027]
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out humanity before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill AI wipe out "humanity" before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketReglas
Will continuing progress in AI capabilities result in every human dying by Jan 1st, 2030?
- Due to M$ not being worth anything if the world ends, people have an incentive to bet "NO" on questions about AI killing everyone even if they believe the correct answer is probably YES.
- Pleading with people to just bet their beliefs on this important question doesn't seem like the best possible solution.
- This market resolves N/A on Jan 1st, 2027.
- All trades on this market will be rolled back on Jan 1st, 2027.
- However, up until that point, any profit or loss you make on this market will be reflected in your current wealth; which means that purely profit-interested traders can make temporary profits on this market, and use them to fund other permanent bets that may be profitable; via correctly anticipating future shifts in prices among people who do bet their beliefs on this important question, buying low from them and selling high to them.