Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 96.1%
Pronosticadores
12
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
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Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 16 horas
Desactualizado4 jul 23, 18:58 UTC2 ene 30, 1:16 UTC
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Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Will AI wipe out AI before 2030?
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Manifold MarketsWill humanity wipe out AI before the year 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
PolymarketTop AI model in September?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketReglas
If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.
- If AIs are not around but AI(s) are because AI(s) wiped them out then this market resolves to YES.
- If neither humanity nor AIs are around then this market does not resolve.
- Update 2026-01-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The aggressor AI that wipes out other AIs does not necessarily need to survive.
- For example, an AI could destroy all compute on Earth, eliminating both itself and all other AIs in the process.
- The market would still resolve YES in this scenario as long as humanity survives.
Mercados abiertos
AIPOLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+8.5pt56.5%
- 2027+3.0pt33.3%
- 2026+4.0pt10.2%
- Volumen total
- 224,7 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 160,5 mil €
KALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+4.0pt73%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-5-max+4.0pt5%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+3.0pt90%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt13.1%
- Gemini-3.0pt1.9%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 344,9 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+3.6pt62%
- ChatGPT-4.4pt22%
- Grok-0.2pt8%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-7.5pt63%
- 1490+-9.0pt54%
- 1500+-1.0pt28%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Gemini 4.0 released by which date?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 96% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030??
- Está previsto que Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030? se resuelva el 2 de enero de 2030.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: If AIs are still around on Jan 1, 2030, then this market resolves to NO.