Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 62.5%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Actualizado hace 5 horas
Desactualizado17 jul 26, 7:58 UTC31 dic 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketReglas
Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.
- My judgement.
- Note that it can be very smart and still be dumb.
- Free tier only.
- Example of it being dumb and contradicting itself:
- [image]Also, regarding fiber optic drones, "A system optimized for combat may intentionally allow a lot of slack and avoid applying excessive tension because a snapped cable is preferable to losing the drone."
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max+60.0pt71%
- claude-opus-5-max+1.0pt7%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 132,8 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 100,3 mil €
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude+4.8pt60.8%
- ChatGPT+0.5pt25.5%
- Grok-3.4pt5.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+1.0pt86%
- November 30,84%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+22.0pt62.2%
- 2027+11.0pt28.6%
- 2026+4.5pt9.2%
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+5.0pt80.4%
- ChatGPT-2.0pt12.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 322,4 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-1.0pt66%
- 1490+-3.5pt51%
- 1500+-1.0pt30%
+2 resultados más
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- OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 63% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027??
- Está previsto que Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2027.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI stop being dumb by the end of 2027??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Specifically will I stop thinking it's dumb.