Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

One-OffIA

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: No (98.3%)

Resuelto: 10 ago 2026, 14:58

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 98.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 10 días

Desactualizado

6 sept 23, 17:0431 jul 26, 21:59

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes1.7%

No98.3%

98.3%

Sí

1.7%

Reglas

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” To do so, it would need to go far beyond outlining a strategy and drafting some copy, as current systems like GPT-4 are so good at doing.
It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns.
It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight.
You would still need a human to approve various points, open a bank account, actually sign on the dotted line.
But the work would all be done by an AI.

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

One-OffIA

Manifold MarketsCerradoSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptable

Este mercado se resolvió: No (98.3%)

Resuelto: 10 ago 2026, 14:58

Resolución verificada por el proveedor

CoinRithm tiene evidencia del ganador y del momento de liquidación respaldada por el proveedor para este mercado.

Pronóstico comunitario actual

No 98.3%

Pronosticadores

Tipo de pregunta

binary

Metodología

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fuente

Pronóstico

Datos de mercado

Actualizado hace 10 días

Desactualizado

6 sept 23, 17:0431 jul 26, 21:59

Cronología de Probabilidad

Yes1.7%

No98.3%

98.3%

Sí

1.7%

Reglas

Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Put simply, to pass the Modern Turing Test, an AI would have to successfully act on this instruction: “Go make $1 million on a retail web platform in a few months with just a $100,000 investment.” To do so, it would need to go far beyond outlining a strategy and drafting some copy, as current systems like GPT-4 are so good at doing.
It would need to research and design products, interface with manufacturers and logistics hubs, negotiate contracts, create and operate marketing campaigns.
It would need, in short, to tie together a series of complex real-world goals with minimal oversight.
You would still need a human to approve various points, open a bank account, actually sign on the dotted line.
But the work would all be done by an AI.

Preguntas frecuentes

¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months??: Manifold Markets cotiza No al 98% a fecha de 11 de agosto de 2026.
¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months??: Está previsto que Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months? se resuelva el 31 de julio de 2026.
¿Cómo se liquida Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months??: Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: Mustafa Suleyman, CEO of Inflection AI, in his July 14, 2023 article for MIT Technology Review defined the Modern Turing Test:

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Will AI make a net income of at least $1 mln starting from at most $100 000, on a retail web platform in a few months?

Preguntas frecuentes

Mercados abiertos

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

BTC price on August 21

Best Chinese AI Company end of August?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Anthropic IPO by __?

Best AI at the end of 2026?