Manifold MarketsSin KYCDatos de resolución verificadosCalibración aceptablePronóstico comunitario actualNo 91.8%
Pronosticadores
26
Tipo de pregunta
binary
Metodología
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fuente
Pronóstico
Datos de mercado
Actualizado hace 1 hora
Retrasado8 jun 25, 9:48 UTC31 dic 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendencias
Mercados Relacionados
Preguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, no una comparación de contratos equivalentes.
Best AI time horizon by August 2026, per METR?
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Manifold MarketsTime's Person of the Year for 2026
KalshiTIME Person of the Year 2026
PolymarketTIME Person of the Year 2026
FutuurReglas
resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)
Mercados abiertos
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 135,2 mil €
- Volumen 24h
- 102,7 mil €
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 resultados más
- Volumen total
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 9,1 M €
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 resultados más
- Volumen total
- 325 mil €
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 resultados más
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
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Preguntas frecuentes
- ¿Cuáles son las probabilidades actuales de Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026??
- Manifold Markets cotiza No al 92% a fecha de 8 de septiembre de 2026.
- ¿Cuándo se resuelve Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026??
- Está previsto que Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026? se resuelva el 31 de diciembre de 2026.
- ¿Cómo se liquida Will AI be Time's person of the year in 2025 OR 2026??
- Manifold Markets liquida este mercado del siguiente modo: resolves yes even if AI is done in conjunction with someone (like Sam Altman + AI)